Kairat Almaty 0–0 Shakhter Karagandy

Kairat Almaty

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhter Karagandy

9/23/2023

Premier League · Round 23Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Kairat Almaty61%

×Draw22%

Shakhter Karagandy17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kairat AlmatyExpected goals in this matchShakhter Karagandy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.91

Kairat Almaty

1.93

Shakhter Karagandy

0.91

Kairat Almaty creates 112% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 75 away

2.11

creates per match

0.96

0.85

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Kairat Almaty

2.11

Shakhter Karagandy

0.96

allows per match

Kairat Almaty

0.85

Shakhter Karagandy

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

Shakhter Karagandy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw

83%

Kairat Almaty or Shakhter Karagandy

78%

Draw or Shakhter Karagandy

39%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

36%

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

85%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

57%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

30%

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

60%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

23%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

78%

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.85 · 96 matches

Shakhter Karagandy away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 2.11 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

Shakhter Karagandy attack 0.96 + Kairat Almaty defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more

61%

level

22%

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

17%

Kairat Almaty at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff