Shakhter Karagandy 0–0 Irtysh: Result & Stats

Shakhter Karagandy

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Irtysh

5/1/2025

1. Division · Round 4Shakhter Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shakhter Karagandy47%

×Draw22%

Irtysh31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhter KaragandyExpected goals in this matchIrtysh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.52

Shakhter Karagandy

1.92

Irtysh

1.52

Shakhter Karagandy creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

3.06

creates per match

2.38

0.67

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Shakhter Karagandy

3.06

Irtysh

2.38

allows per match

Shakhter Karagandy

0.67

Irtysh

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Irtysh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Karagandy ↓

Irtysh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Shakhter Karagandy or draw

69%

Shakhter Karagandy or Irtysh

78%

Draw or Irtysh

53%

Winning margin

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

26%

Irtysh wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

85%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

57%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

30%

Irtysh 1+ goals

78%

Irtysh 2+ goals

45%

Irtysh 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

60%

Irtysh (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Karagandy at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Irtysh away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Karagandy attack 3.06 + Irtysh defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.92

Irtysh attack 2.38 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

47%

level

22%

Irtysh scores more

31%

Shakhter Karagandy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shakhter Karagandy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

A. Migunov

40'

M. Dilmurat

42'

G. Zakharenko← V. Vomenko

66'

A. Smailov← M. Gerasimov

70'

M. Komikov← A. Nusip

79'

B. Savkiv← R. Nurmugamet

89'

A. Tattybaev← D. Kalybayev

89'

B. Toleuov← A. Popov

Shakhter

Irtysh

35

Kalmykov

7

▼

Vomenko

9

▼

11

14

15

19

▼

20

23

55

80

30

7

▼

Nusip

8

Ospanov

10

▼

11

13

17

21

23

▼

Nurmugame

26

Kerimzhan

28

Pertsukh

70'▲M. Komikov←▼A. Nusip

79'▲B. Savkiv←▼R. Nurmugamet

89'▲A. Tattybaev←▼D. Kalybayev

Shakhter Karagandy substitutes

27Dilmurat25Kholod24Zhankhaev20Komikov18Altynkhan16Nurgaliev15Savkiv12Mukhametzhanov9Tattybaev6Chernobuk4Zubaydilda1Loshkarev

42'▲G. Zakharenko←▼V. Vomenko

66'▲A. Smailov←▼M. Gerasimov

89'▲B. Toleuov←▼A. Popov

Irtysh substitutes

99Toleubek97Smailov27Baydrakhmanov25Esimov22Rakhmetov21Usipkhanov8Zakharenko4Nyrkov3Toleuov

Match Recap: Shakhter Karagandy vs Irtysh

Shakhter Karagandy and Irtysh drew 0-0 in 1. Division on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Shakhter Stadion in Karaganda.

Shakhter Karagandy vs Irtysh — 1. Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Shakhter Karagandy vs Irtysh