Irtysh 1–1 Shakhter Karagandy: Result & Stats | Cup

Irtysh

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhter Karagandy

M. Vaganov 47'

D. Kalybayev 84'

3/16/2025

Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundSportivnyy Kompleks Kaznu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Irtysh42%

×Draw26%

Shakhter Karagandy32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IrtyshExpected goals in this matchShakhter Karagandy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.21

Irtysh

1.44

Shakhter Karagandy

1.21

Irtysh creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.20

creates per match

1.42

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Irtysh

1.20

Shakhter Karagandy

1.42

allows per match

Irtysh

1.00

Shakhter Karagandy

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh+0.00on par

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh ↓

Shakhter Karagandy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Irtysh or draw

68%

Irtysh or Shakhter Karagandy

74%

Draw or Shakhter Karagandy

58%

Winning margin

Irtysh wins by 2+

20%

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Irtysh 1+ goals

76%

Irtysh 2+ goals

42%

Irtysh 3+ goals

18%

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

70%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

34%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Irtysh (draw refunded)

57%

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Shakhter Karagandy away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh attack 1.20 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.42 + Irtysh defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Irtysh scores more

42%

level

26%

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

32%

Irtysh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Irtysh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

M. Vaganov

84'

D. Kalybayev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff