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Shakhter Karagandy vs FK Aksu — Premier League 2019

Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
5/20/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Shakhter Karagandy53%
×Draw25%
FK Aksu22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhter Karagandy
1.59
FK Aksu
0.92

Shakhter Karagandy creates 73% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 26 away

creates per match

Shakhter Karagandy
1.14
FK Aksu
0.73

allows per match

Shakhter Karagandy
1.11
FK Aksu
2.04

finishing

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par
FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Karagandy ↓

FK Aksu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shakhter Karagandy or draw
78%
Shakhter Karagandy or FK Aksu
75%
Draw or FK Aksu
47%

Winning margin

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+
28%
FK Aksu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals
80%
Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals
47%
Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals
21%
FK Aksu 1+ goals
60%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
23%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)
71%
FK Aksu (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Karagandy at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.14 + FK Aksu defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.59

FK Aksu attack 0.73 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shakhter Karagandy scores more
53%
level
25%
FK Aksu scores more
22%

Shakhter Karagandy at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shakhter Karagandy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shakhter Karagandy vs FK Aksu

Shakhter Karagandy beat FK Aksu 2-1 in Premier League on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Shakhter in Karaganda.