FK Aksu 2–1 Shakhter Karagandy: Result & Stats

FK Aksu

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shakhter Karagandy

7/29/2023

Premier League · Round 17Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FK Aksu49%

×Draw25%

Shakhter Karagandy25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK AksuExpected goals in this matchShakhter Karagandy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.04

FK Aksu

1.56

Shakhter Karagandy

1.04

FK Aksu creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 75 away

1.38

creates per match

0.96

1.12

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

FK Aksu

1.38

Shakhter Karagandy

0.96

allows per match

FK Aksu

1.12

Shakhter Karagandy

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

Shakhter Karagandy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw

75%

FK Aksu or Shakhter Karagandy

75%

Draw or Shakhter Karagandy

51%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+

25%

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals

79%

FK Aksu 2+ goals

46%

FK Aksu 3+ goals

21%

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

65%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

28%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)

66%

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

Shakhter Karagandy away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 1.38 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Shakhter Karagandy attack 0.96 + FK Aksu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Aksu scores more

49%

level

25%

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

25%

FK Aksu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff