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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Premier League 2019

Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
12/3/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Arena Lviv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk53%
×Draw25%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtar Donetsk
1.56
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.90

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 73% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk
2.31
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.12

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk
0.67
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.80

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.69scores more
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.26scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw
78%
Shakhtar Donetsk or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
75%
Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
47%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
28%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
79%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
46%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
21%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
59%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
23%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
71%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.31 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.12 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
53%
level
25%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
22%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2-0 in Premier League on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Lviv in Lviv.