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Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk — Premier League 2019

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 4
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
3/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Arena L'viv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv29%
×Draw26%
Shakhtar Donetsk44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.10
Shakhtar Donetsk
1.42

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.32
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.12

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.72
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.88

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.52scores less
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.13scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw
56%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or Shakhtar Donetsk
74%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk
71%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
11%
Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
67%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
30%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
10%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
76%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
41%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
40%
Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.72 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.32 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.12 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
29%
level
26%
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
44%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 7-0 in Premier League on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Arena L'viv in L'viv.