Shakhtar Donetsk 6–0 Inhulets: Result & Stats

Shakhtar Donetsk

FT

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Inhulets

Eguinaldo 82', 70'

O. Zubkov 79'

Kevin 50'

B. Franjić 47'

A. Bondarenko 45+1'

11/23/2024

Premier League · Round 14Arena Lviv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk68%

×Draw19%

Inhulets13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar DonetskExpected goals in this matchInhulets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.77

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.11

Inhulets

0.77

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 174% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 53 away

2.47

creates per match

0.83

0.72

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.47

Inhulets

0.83

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.72

Inhulets

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

Inhulets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Inhulets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw

87%

Shakhtar Donetsk or Inhulets

81%

Draw or Inhulets

32%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

44%

Inhulets wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

88%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

62%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

35%

Inhulets 1+ goals

54%

Inhulets 2+ goals

18%

Inhulets 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

84%

Inhulets (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.72 · 102 matches

Inhulets away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.47 + Inhulets defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.11

Inhulets attack 0.83 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

68%

level

19%

Inhulets scores more

13%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Roman Volokhatyi

32'

Georgiy Sudakov

45+1'

A. Bondarenko↳ D. Sikan

47'

B. Franjić↳ O. Zubkov

50'

Kevin↳ O. Zubkov

53'

Marian Mysyk

56'

Bogdan Mogilnyi

61'

I. Hadzhuk← R. Volokhatyi

61'

D. Rezepov← B. Mohylnyi

61'

R. Lisniak← V. Sad

63'

Eguinaldo← D. Sikan

64'

Pedrinho← H. Sudakov

64'

Newerton← Kevin

70'

Eguinaldo↳ Pedrinho

79'

O. Zubkov↳ D. Kryskiv

80'

M. Shved← O. Zubkov

80'

Marlon Gomes← A. Bondarenko

82'

Eguinaldo↳ Newerton

85'

V. Dubilei← S. Malysh

85'

M. Skorokhod← V. Bilotserkovets

Shakhtar4-1-4-1

Inhulets3-5-1-1

99

Kyslenko

59

▼

Mohylnyi

33

Mysyk

18

▼

Sad

20

▼

Volokhaty

8

Piatov

22

▼

Bilotserk

45

Vilivald

23

Shershen

2

▼

12

31

16

4

⚽

Franjić

5

Bondar

17

Tobias

8

A

Kryskiv

37

⚽

▼

Kevin

10

▼

Sudakov

21

⚽

▼

Bondarenk

11

⚽A

▼

Zubkov

14

A

▼

Sikan

Manager: M. Pusic

63'▲Eguinaldo←▼D. Sikan

64'▲Pedrinho←▼H. Sudakov

64'▲Newerton←▼Kevin

80'▲M. Shved←▼O. Zubkov

80'▲Marlon Gomes←▼A. Bondarenko

Shakhtar Donetsk substitutes

7Eguinaldo38Pedrinho39Newerton9Shved30Gomes74Faryna26Konoplia6Stepanenko72Fesiun2Traoré22Matviienko18Ghram

Manager: V. Kobin

61'▲I. Hadzhuk←▼R. Volokhatyi

61'▲D. Rezepov←▼B. Mohylnyi

61'▲R. Lisniak←▼V. Sad

85'▲V. Dubilei←▼S. Malysh

85'▲M. Skorokhod←▼V. Bilotserkovets

Inhulets substitutes

42Hadzhuk97Rezepov19Lisniak4Dubilei87Skorokhod36Zhylkin26Sydorenko44Chaban