Inhulets 1–4 Shakhtar Donetsk: Result & Stats

Inhulets

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Shakhtar Donetsk

R. Volokhatyi 17'

A. Bondarenko 90+1', 3'

H. Sudakov 70', 67'

5/18/2025

Premier League · Round 29Stadion Ukraina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Inhulets16%

×Draw23%

Shakhtar Donetsk62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InhuletsExpected goals in this matchShakhtar Donetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.79

Inhulets

0.77

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.79

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 132% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

0.72

creates per match

1.86

1.73

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Inhulets

0.72

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.86

allows per match

Inhulets

1.73

Shakhtar Donetsk

0.81

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Inhulets-0.12scores less

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inhulets ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Inhulets or draw

38%

Inhulets or Shakhtar Donetsk

77%

Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk

84%

Winning margin

Inhulets wins by 2+

5%

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Inhulets 1+ goals

54%

Inhulets 2+ goals

18%

Inhulets 3+ goals

4%

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

83%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

53%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Inhulets (draw refunded)

20%

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inhulets at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.73 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inhulets attack 0.72 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.86 + Inhulets defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Inhulets scores more

16%

level

23%

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

62%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Sudakov

Shakhtar Donetsk · M

9.9

Match Events

3'

A. Bondarenko↳ I. Azarovi

17'

R. Volokhatyi↳ S. Malysh

41'

Vinícius Tobias

43'

Y. Nazaryna← Vinícius Tobias

54'

O. Palamarchuk← A. Zhylkin

67'

H. Sudakov↳ Alisson Santana

69'

L. Traoré← Kauã Elias

69'

D. Arroyo← V. Bondar

69'

Kevin← Newerton

70'

H. Sudakov

71'

I. Hadzhuk← O. Piatov

72'

R. Lisniak← B. Mohylnyi

77'

V. Tsukanov← H. Sudakov

82'

A. Melenchuk← O. Pushkariov

82'

M. Skorokhod← I. Losenko

82'

M. Shved← Alisson Santana

87'

N. Popov← R. Volokhatyi

90+1'

A. Bondarenko↳ Kevin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InhuletsShakhtar

Overview

36%Possession64%

10Total Shots15

1.17Expected Goals (xG)2.64

5Corners2

5Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots15

2On Target8

6Off Target4

2Blocked3

7Inside Box12

3Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

284Total Passes564

226Accurate Passes499

80%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

5Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0