Shakhtar Donetsk 1–3 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Shakhtar Donetsk

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Crystal Palace

O. Ocheretko 47'

J. S. Larsen 84'

D. Kamada 58'

I. Sarr 1'

4/30/2026

UEFA Europa Conference League · Semi-finalsSynerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk30%

×Draw27%

Crystal Palace43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar DonetskExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.35

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.07

Crystal Palace

1.35

Crystal Palace creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

1.57

1.14

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.29

Crystal Palace

1.57

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.14

Crystal Palace

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk or draw

57%

Shakhtar Donetsk or Crystal Palace

73%

Draw or Crystal Palace

70%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

11%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

66%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

29%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

9%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

74%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

39%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

41%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.29 + Crystal Palace defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Crystal Palace attack 1.57 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

30%

level

27%

Crystal Palace scores more

43%

Crystal Palace at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

D. Kamada

Crystal Palace · M

8.2

Match Events

1'

31'

38'

44'

47'

O. Ocheretko↳ Kaua Elias

52'

Pedro Henrique

56'

Jaydee Canvot

58'

D. Kamada↳ M. Lacroix

65'

Isaque Silva← Marlon Gomes

65'

J. S. Larsen← J. Mateta

74'

Newerton← Eguinaldo

74'

A. Bondarenko← Pedrinho

74'

B. Johnson← Y. Pino

83'

L. Traore← Kaua Elias

83'

Y. Nazaryna← O. Ocheretko

84'

J. S. Larsen↳ D. Kamada

90'

J. Lerma← D. Kamada

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShakhtarCrystal

Overview

71%Possession29%

15Total Shots10

1.06Expected Goals (xG)2.31

13Corners1

7Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots10

1On Target7

5Off Target2

9Blocked1

12Inside Box8

3Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

517Total Passes217

472Accurate Passes158

91%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.76Goals Prevented-0.76

Discipline

7Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

UEFA Europa Conference League: Shakhtar Donetsk 1–3 Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace beat Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on April 30, 2026.

Goals: I. Sarr (1'), O. Ocheretko (47'), D. Kamada (58'), J. S. Larsen (84').

Shakhtar Donetsk controlled possession (71%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Krakow.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Crystal Palace — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UEFA Europa Conference League: Shakhtar Donetsk 1–3 Crystal Palace