Crystal Palace 2–1 Shakhtar Donetsk: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shakhtar Donetsk

I. Sarr 52'

P. Henrique 25' (OG)

Eguinaldo 34'

5/7/2026

UEFA Europa Conference League · Semi-finalsSelhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Crystal Palace47%

×Draw26%

Shakhtar Donetsk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchShakhtar Donetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.03

Crystal Palace

1.45

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.03

Crystal Palace creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.83

creates per match

1.63

0.44

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.83

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.63

allows per match

Crystal Palace

0.44

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.07

-0.83scores less than expected

finishing

+0.54scores more than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.83scores less

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.54scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

73%

Crystal Palace or Shakhtar Donetsk

74%

Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk

53%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

23%

Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

77%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

42%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

18%

Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals

64%

Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals

28%

Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

64%

Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.44 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.83 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.63 + Crystal Palace defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

47%

level

26%

Shakhtar Donetsk scores more

27%

Crystal Palace at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

D. Riznyk

Shakhtar Donetsk · G

8.2

Match Events

12'

Yéremy PinoGoal cancelled

15'

Valerii Bondar

25'

P. HenriqueOwn goal

27'

A. Ghram← V. Tobias

34'

Eguinaldo↳ P. Henrique

46'

Isaque Silva← Alisson

52'

I. Sarr↳ T. Mitchell

56'

L. Traore← Kaua Elias

56'

Newerton← O. Ocheretko

66'

J. S. Larsen← J. Mateta

75'

Lucas Ferreira← Pedrinho

78'

B. Johnson← Y. Pino

88'

J. Lerma← D. Kamada

89'

N. Clyne← D. Munoz

89'

W. Hughes← A. Wharton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalShakhtar

Overview

34%Possession66%

11Total Shots17

1.37Expected Goals (xG)1.04

1Corners5

8Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots17

5On Target6

4Off Target7

2Blocked4

7Inside Box13

4Outside Box4

Passing

34%Possession66%

272Total Passes541

209Accurate Passes495

77%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

-0.41Goals Prevented-0.41

Discipline

8Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0