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Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Porto U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
CANC
10:00
Porto U19
Porto U19
3/3/2021UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group StageStadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U1922%
×Draw22%
Porto U1956%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.17
Porto U19
1.99

Porto U19 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.40
Porto U19
2.32

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.67
Porto U19
0.95

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par
Porto U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 ↓

Porto U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or draw
44%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or Porto U19
78%
Draw or Porto U19
78%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+
9%
Porto U19 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals
69%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals
33%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals
11%
Porto U19 1+ goals
86%
Porto U19 2+ goals
59%
Porto U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)
28%
Porto U19 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Porto U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 1.40 + Porto U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Porto U19 attack 2.32 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more
22%
level
22%
Porto U19 scores more
56%

Porto U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Porto U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Porto U19 — Match Preview

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 face Porto U19 on March 3, 2021 in this UEFA Youth League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 host Porto U19 at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.