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Porto U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Porto U19
Porto U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
12/13/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Estádio Dr. Jorge Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Porto U1958%
×Draw21%
Shakhtar Donetsk U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porto U19
2.00
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.09

Porto U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

creates per match

Porto U19
2.20
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
0.94

allows per match

Porto U19
1.25
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.81

finishing

Porto U19+0.00on par
Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto U19 ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Porto U19 or draw
80%
Porto U19 or Shakhtar Donetsk U19
79%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk U19
42%

Winning margin

Porto U19 wins by 2+
35%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Porto U19 1+ goals
86%
Porto U19 2+ goals
59%
Porto U19 3+ goals
32%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals
66%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals
30%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Porto U19 (draw refunded)
74%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto U19 attack 2.20 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.00

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 0.94 + Porto U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Porto U19 scores more
58%
level
21%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more
20%

Porto U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Porto U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Porto U19 2–0 Shakhtar Donetsk U19

Porto U19 beat Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Sampaio in Pedroso, Vila Nova de Gaia.