Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1–1 Olympique Lyonnais U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olympique Lyonnais U19

O. Kashchuk 59'

R. Griffiths 90+4'

12/12/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova (Kyjiv (Kiev))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U1932%

×Draw22%

Olympique Lyonnais U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar Donetsk U19Expected goals in this matchOlympique Lyonnais U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.94

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.60

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.94

Olympique Lyonnais U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

2.20

1.67

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.40

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.20

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.67

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 ↓

Olympique Lyonnais U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or draw

54%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or Olympique Lyonnais U19

78%

Draw or Olympique Lyonnais U19

68%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+

15%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals

80%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals

47%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals

22%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

86%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

58%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Olympique Lyonnais U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 1.40 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.20 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more

32%

level

22%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

46%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Olympique Lyonnais U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

O. Kashchuk↳ V. Bondar

60'

M. Cherki← T. Oualembo

60'

R. Griffiths← L. Pintor

68'

M. Mbenga← J. Fumont

69'

T. Ehling← E. Lepaul

70'

H. Sudakov← K. Prykhodko

82'

M. Bard← T. Matam

88'

S. Biblyk← M. Mudryk

90+3'

V. Kobylianskyi← O. Kashchuk

90+4'

R. Griffiths↳ C. Ngolou

Shakhtar

Olympique

16

Barcola

5

Dramé

26

Bomawoko

29

A

Ngolou

20

Kalulu

11

▼

Matam

15

▼

Fumont

17

▼

Pintor

9

▼

Oualembo

28

▼

Lepaul

22

Thomas

1

Trubin

4

A

3

5

8

9

6

▼

Prykhodko

10

Bondarenk

11

▼

Mudryk

7

⚽

▼

Kashchuk

2

Kholod

Manager: Andres Carrasco

70'▲H. Sudakov←▼K. Prykhodko

88'▲S. Biblyk←▼M. Mudryk

90+3'▲V. Kobylianskyi←▼O. Kashchuk

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 substitutes

16Sudakov18Biblyk15Kobylianskyi12Karavashenko17Dukhota14Yakuba13Shushko

Manager: S. Roche

60'▲M. Cherki←▼T. Oualembo

60'▲R. Griffiths←▼L. Pintor

68'▲M. Mbenga←▼J. Fumont

69'▲T. Ehling←▼E. Lepaul

82'▲M. Bard←▼T. Matam

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

23Cherki21Griffiths24Mbenga14Ehling3Bard2Minolien30Bonnevie

UEFA Youth League: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1–1 Olympique Lyonnais U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 and Olympique Lyonnais U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on December 12, 2018.

Goals: O. Kashchuk (59'), R. Griffiths (90+4').

The match was played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova (Kyjiv (Kiev)).

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Olympique Lyonnais U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1–1 Olympique Lyonnais U19