Olympique Lyonnais U19 2–0 Shakhtar Donetsk U19

Olympique Lyonnais U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

L. Pintor 69'

Y. Soumaré 16'

10/2/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Groupama OL Academy Décines-Charpieu (Décines-Charpieu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olympique Lyonnais U1959%

×Draw21%

Shakhtar Donetsk U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique Lyonnais U19Expected goals in this matchShakhtar Donetsk U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.14

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.07

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.14

Olympique Lyonnais U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

2.33

creates per match

0.94

1.33

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.33

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

0.94

allows per match

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.33

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Lyonnais U19 ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Olympique Lyonnais U19 or draw

80%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 or Shakhtar Donetsk U19

79%

Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk U19

41%

Winning margin

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

35%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

87%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

61%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

34%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals

68%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals

32%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.33 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.07

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 0.94 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

59%

level

21%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more

20%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Olympique Lyonnais U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Y. Soumaré↳ H. Rafia

64'

H. Sudakov← D. Kryskiv

69'

L. Pintor↳ H. Rafia

77'

C. Augarreau← Y. Soumaré

77'

R. Anaba← M. Bard

78'

A. Kholod← A. Kulakov

78'

K. Prykhodko← M. Chekh

85'

O. Kashchuk← K. Romaniuk

88'

T. Thomas← H. Rafia

90'

E. Coly← C. Augarreau

Olympique

Shakhtar

1

8

3

4

5

2

▼

Romaniuk

6

▼

Chekh

9

▼

Kulakov

10

▼

7

11

16

26

3

▼

29

20

6

10

A

▼

Rafia

8

Caqueret

11

Matam

17

⚽

Pintor

7

⚽

▼

Soumaré

Manager: S. Roche

77'▲C. Augarreau←▼Y. Soumaré

77'▲R. Anaba←▼M. Bard

88'▲T. Thomas←▼H. Rafia

90'▲E. Coly←▼C. Augarreau

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

18Augarreau25Anaba22Thomas38Coly1Margueron2Minolien4Perrier

Manager: Andres Carrasco

64'▲H. Sudakov←▼D. Kryskiv

78'▲A. Kholod←▼A. Kulakov

78'▲K. Prykhodko←▼M. Chekh

85'▲O. Kashchuk←▼K. Romaniuk

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 substitutes

14Sudakov17Kholod15Prykhodko18Kashchuk16Biblyk13Chmirov12Karavashenko

Match Recap: Olympique Lyonnais U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19

Olympique Lyonnais U19 beat Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 2, 2018.

Goals: Y. Soumaré (16'), L. Pintor (69').

The match was played at Groupama OL Academy Décines-Charpieu (Décines-Charpieu).

Olympique Lyonnais U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Olympique Lyonnais U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19