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Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Livyi Bereh U19 — U19 League 2023

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Livyi Bereh U19
Livyi Bereh U19
O. Lomaha 69'
O. Bashmarin 55'
R. Heresh 11', 9'
2/23/2025U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 18Kniazha-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U1974%
×Draw16%
Livyi Bereh U1910%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
2.50
Livyi Bereh U19
0.81

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 creates 209% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
2.73
Livyi Bereh U19
0.87

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19
0.76
Livyi Bereh U19
2.27

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par
Livyi Bereh U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 ↓

Livyi Bereh U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or draw
90%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or Livyi Bereh U19
84%
Draw or Livyi Bereh U19
26%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+
51%
Livyi Bereh U19 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals
92%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals
71%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals
45%
Livyi Bereh U19 1+ goals
56%
Livyi Bereh U19 2+ goals
19%
Livyi Bereh U19 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)
88%
Livyi Bereh U19 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.76 · 45 matches

Livyi Bereh U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 2.73 + Livyi Bereh U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.50

Livyi Bereh U19 attack 0.87 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more
74%
level
16%
Livyi Bereh U19 scores more
10%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
R. Heresh
11'
R. Heresh
55'
O. Bashmarin
69'
O. Lomaha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Livyi Bereh U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 and Livyi Bereh U19 drew 2-2 in U19 League on February 23, 2025.

Goals: R. Heresh (9', 11'), O. Bashmarin (55'), O. Lomaha (69').

The match was played at Kniazha-Arena in Shchaslyve.