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Livyi Bereh U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19 — U19 League 2023

Livyi Bereh U19
Livyi Bereh U19
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 5
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
B. Tryfanenko 59' (pen)
M. Oharkov 44'
O. Lomaha 38'
V. Tsukanov 30' (pen)
D. Ibrahima 25'
V. Tyutyunov 19'
8/17/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 3Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Livyi Bereh U1917%
×Draw19%
Shakhtar Donetsk U1965%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livyi Bereh U19
1.12
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
2.36

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 creates 111% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Livyi Bereh U19
1.20
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
2.80

allows per match

Livyi Bereh U19
1.93
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.04

finishing

Livyi Bereh U19+0.00on par
Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livyi Bereh U19 ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Livyi Bereh U19 or draw
35%
Livyi Bereh U19 or Shakhtar Donetsk U19
81%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk U19
83%

Winning margin

Livyi Bereh U19 wins by 2+
6%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Livyi Bereh U19 1+ goals
67%
Livyi Bereh U19 2+ goals
31%
Livyi Bereh U19 3+ goals
10%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals
90%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals
68%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Livyi Bereh U19 (draw refunded)
21%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livyi Bereh U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livyi Bereh U19 attack 1.20 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 2.80 + Livyi Bereh U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Livyi Bereh U19 scores more
17%
level
19%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more
65%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
V. Tyutyunov
25'
D. Ibrahima
30'
V. TsukanovPenalty
38'
O. Lomaha
44'
M. Oharkov
59'
B. TryfanenkoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Livyi Bereh U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 beat Livyi Bereh U19 6-1 in U19 League on August 17, 2024.

Goals: V. Tyutyunov (19'), D. Ibrahima (25'), V. Tsukanov (30' pen), O. Lomaha (38'), M. Oharkov (44'), B. Tryfanenko (59' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Kyiv.