Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1–1 Dinamo Zagreb U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Zagreb U19

A. Bondarenko 50' (pen)

N. Janković 55'

10/22/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3NTB Metalist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U1946%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Zagreb U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shakhtar Donetsk U19Expected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.29

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.65

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.29

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.40

creates per match

0.91

1.67

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.40

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

allows per match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.67

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 ↓

Dinamo Zagreb U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or draw

70%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 or Dinamo Zagreb U19

76%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb U19

54%

Winning margin

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+

24%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals

81%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals

49%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals

23%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

37%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Dinamo Zagreb U19 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 1.40 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 0.91 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more

46%

level

24%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

30%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

A. BondarenkoPenalty

55'

N. Janković↳ B. Karrica

72'

E. Julardžija← B. Karrica

73'

M. Mudryk← A. Abdulaiev

79'

J. Vasilj← T. Krizmanić

84'

K. Hurov← D. Kryskiv

85'

A. Buleza← M. Rudavskyi

90+2'

I. Svržnjak← L. Šipoš

Shakhtar

Dinamo

1

5

2

3

4

6

10

▼

Krizmanić

8

⚽

Janković

7

Marin

9

▼

Šipoš

11

A

▼

1

3

4

7

5

▼

Rudavskyi

2

Kozik

6

▼

Kryskiv

10

⚽

Bondarenk

8

Sudakov

9

Sikan

11

▼

Abdulaiev

Manager: Andres Carrasco

73'▲M. Mudryk←▼A. Abdulaiev

84'▲K. Hurov←▼D. Kryskiv

85'▲A. Buleza←▼M. Rudavskyi

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 substitutes

16Mudryk13Hurov15Buleza14Kapinus17Kobak12Turbaevsky18Pohorilyi

Manager: I. Jovičević

72'▲E. Julardžija←▼B. Karrica

79'▲J. Vasilj←▼T. Krizmanić

90+2'▲I. Svržnjak←▼L. Šipoš

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

15Julardžija16Vasilj18Svržnjak14Stranput13Radonja17Jančić12Krkalic

Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 and Dinamo Zagreb U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 22, 2019.

Goals: A. Bondarenko (50' pen), N. Janković (55').

The match was played at NTB Metalist in Vysokyi.

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Shakhtar Donetsk U19 vs Dinamo Zagreb U19