Dinamo Zagreb U19 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk U19

Dinamo Zagreb U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

T. Krizmanić 61'

11/6/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Stadion Hitrec Kacian

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb U1956%

×Draw24%

Shakhtar Donetsk U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Zagreb U19Expected goals in this matchShakhtar Donetsk U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.93

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.73

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

0.93

Dinamo Zagreb U19 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

1.64

creates per match

0.94

0.91

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

1.64

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

0.94

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb U19

0.91

Shakhtar Donetsk U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb U19+0.00on par

Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb U19 ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or draw

80%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 or Shakhtar Donetsk U19

76%

Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk U19

44%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb U19 wins by 2+

31%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb U19 1+ goals

82%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 2+ goals

52%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 3+ goals

25%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals

61%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals

24%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb U19 attack 1.64 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 0.94 + Dinamo Zagreb U19 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dinamo Zagreb U19 scores more

56%

level

24%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more

20%

Dinamo Zagreb U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Rudavskyi← A. Drambayev

56'

E. Kobak← O. Ocheretko

61'

T. Krizmanić↳ L. Šipoš

71'

V. Kobylianskyi← D. Kryskiv

73'

E. Julardžija← N. Janković

82'

J. Jurčec← B. Karrica

82'

D. Svitiukha← M. Mudryk

82'

D. Kapinus← E. Kozik

90+1'

D. Stranput← A. Marin

Dinamo

Shakhtar

1

Trubin

3

Muravskyi

4

Yakuba

5

▼

Drambayev

2

▼

Kozik

6

▼

Kryskiv

8

Bondarenk

11

▼

Mudryk

10

Sudakov

7

▼

9

1

5

2

3

4

6

10

⚽

Krizmanić

8

▼

Janković

7

▼

Marin

9

A

Šipoš

11

▼

Karrica

Manager: I. Jovičević

73'▲E. Julardžija←▼N. Janković

82'▲J. Jurčec←▼B. Karrica

90+1'▲D. Stranput←▼A. Marin

Dinamo Zagreb U19 substitutes

16Julardžija18Jurčec14Stranput13Radonja12Šarkanj15Kočar17Jančić

Manager: Andres Carrasco

46'▲M. Rudavskyi←▼A. Drambayev

56'▲E. Kobak←▼O. Ocheretko

71'▲V. Kobylianskyi←▼D. Kryskiv

82'▲D. Svitiukha←▼M. Mudryk

82'▲D. Kapinus←▼E. Kozik

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 substitutes

15Rudavskyi16Kobak14Kobylianskyi18Svitiukha13Kapinus19Symenko12Turbaevsky