Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shaita vs Heaven Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Shaita
Shaita
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
10/25/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 6TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shaita37%
×Draw24%
Heaven Eleven38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaita
1.48
Heaven Eleven
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 60 away

creates per match

Shaita
1.46
Heaven Eleven
1.55

allows per match

Shaita
1.46
Heaven Eleven
1.50

finishing

Shaita+0.00on par
Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaita ↓

Heaven Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shaita or draw
62%
Shaita or Heaven Eleven
76%
Draw or Heaven Eleven
63%

Winning margin

Shaita wins by 2+
18%
Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shaita 1+ goals
77%
Shaita 2+ goals
43%
Shaita 3+ goals
19%
Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
78%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
44%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shaita (draw refunded)
49%
Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaita at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaita attack 1.46 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + Shaita defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shaita scores more
37%
level
24%
Heaven Eleven scores more
38%

Heaven Eleven at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shaita vs Heaven Eleven

Shaita and Heaven Eleven drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.