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Heaven Eleven vs Shaita — LFA First Division 2020

Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Shaita
Shaita
N. Junior 48' (pen)
M. Keita 80' (pen)
L. Taylor 20'
2/19/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 19Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Heaven Eleven48%
×Draw22%
Shaita30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heaven Eleven
1.90
Shaita
1.47

Heaven Eleven creates 29% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 13 away

creates per match

Heaven Eleven
1.72
Shaita
1.62

allows per match

Heaven Eleven
1.31
Shaita
2.08

finishing

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par
Shaita+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heaven Eleven ↓

Shaita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Heaven Eleven or draw
70%
Heaven Eleven or Shaita
78%
Draw or Shaita
52%

Winning margin

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
27%
Shaita wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
85%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
56%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
29%
Shaita 1+ goals
77%
Shaita 2+ goals
43%
Shaita 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
61%
Shaita (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heaven Eleven at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Shaita away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heaven Eleven attack 1.72 + Shaita defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.90

Shaita attack 1.62 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Heaven Eleven scores more
48%
level
22%
Shaita scores more
30%

Heaven Eleven at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
L. Taylor
48'
N. JuniorPenalty
80'
M. KeitaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heaven Eleven vs Shaita

Shaita beat Heaven Eleven 2-1 in LFA First Division on February 19, 2025.

Goals: L. Taylor (20'), N. Junior (48' pen), M. Keita (80' pen).

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.