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Shahre Raz vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
5/18/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahre Raz54%
×Draw29%
Shahrdari Astara16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahre Raz
1.29
Shahrdari Astara
0.57

Shahre Raz creates 126% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shahre Raz
0.88
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Shahre Raz
0.74
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Shahre Raz+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahre Raz ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahre Raz or draw
84%
Shahre Raz or Shahrdari Astara
71%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
46%

Winning margin

Shahre Raz wins by 2+
26%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shahre Raz 1+ goals
72%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
37%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
14%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
43%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
11%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
77%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahre Raz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahre Raz attack 0.88 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Shahre Raz defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shahre Raz scores more
54%
level
29%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
16%

Shahre Raz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shahre Raz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahre Raz 7–0 Shahrdari Astara

Shahre Raz beat Shahrdari Astara 7-0 in Azadegan League on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.