Shahrdari Astara 3–2 Shahre Raz: Result & Stats

Shahrdari Astara

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Shahre Raz

6/5/2024

Azadegan League · Round 33Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahrdari Astara42%

×Draw31%

Shahre Raz27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari AstaraExpected goals in this matchShahre Raz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.80

Shahrdari Astara

1.09

Shahre Raz

0.80

Shahrdari Astara creates 36% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 34 away

0.92

creates per match

0.65

0.95

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara

0.92

Shahre Raz

0.65

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara

0.95

Shahre Raz

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Shahre Raz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw

73%

Shahrdari Astara or Shahre Raz

69%

Draw or Shahre Raz

58%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

17%

Shahre Raz wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

66%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

30%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

10%

Shahre Raz 1+ goals

55%

Shahre Raz 2+ goals

19%

Shahre Raz 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

61%

Shahre Raz (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Shahre Raz away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Shahre Raz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Shahre Raz attack 0.65 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more

42%

level

31%

Shahre Raz scores more

27%

Shahrdari Astara at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff