Shahre Raz 0–2 Paykan: Result & Stats

Shahre Raz

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Paykan

12/13/2024

Azadegan League · Round 14Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Shahre Raz28%

×Draw33%

Paykan39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahre RazExpected goals in this matchPaykan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

0.96

Shahre Raz

0.77

Paykan

0.96

Paykan creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

0.88

creates per match

1.18

0.74

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Shahre Raz

0.88

Paykan

1.18

allows per match

Shahre Raz

0.74

Paykan

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahre Raz ↓

Paykan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–117%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Shahre Raz or draw

61%

Shahre Raz or Paykan

67%

Draw or Paykan

72%

Winning margin

Shahre Raz wins by 2+

9%

Paykan wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shahre Raz 1+ goals

54%

Shahre Raz 2+ goals

18%

Shahre Raz 3+ goals

4%

Paykan 1+ goals

62%

Paykan 2+ goals

25%

Paykan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shahre Raz (draw refunded)

42%

Paykan (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahre Raz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Paykan away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahre Raz attack 0.88 + Paykan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Paykan attack 1.18 + Shahre Raz defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shahre Raz scores more

28%

level

33%

Paykan scores more

39%

Paykan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff