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Paykan vs Shahre Raz — Azadegan League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
5/1/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Shahr-e Qods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paykan53%
×Draw29%
Shahre Raz18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
1.31
Shahre Raz
0.62

Paykan creates 111% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Paykan
1.35
Shahre Raz
0.65

allows per match

Paykan
0.59
Shahre Raz
1.26

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Shahre Raz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
82%
Paykan or Shahre Raz
71%
Draw or Shahre Raz
47%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
26%
Shahre Raz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
73%
Paykan 2+ goals
38%
Paykan 3+ goals
14%
Shahre Raz 1+ goals
46%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
13%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
75%
Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Shahre Raz away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 1.35 + Shahre Raz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Shahre Raz attack 0.65 + Paykan defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Paykan scores more
53%
level
29%
Shahre Raz scores more
18%

Paykan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paykan vs Shahre Raz

Paykan and Shahre Raz drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Shahr-e Qods Stadium in Shahr-e Qods.