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Shahre Raz vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018

Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
9/3/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahre Raz43%
×Draw32%
Esteghlal Mollasani26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahre Raz
1.09
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.78

Shahre Raz creates 40% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Shahre Raz
0.88
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82

allows per match

Shahre Raz
0.74
Esteghlal Mollasani
1.31

finishing

Shahre Raz+0.00on par
Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahre Raz ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahre Raz or draw
74%
Shahre Raz or Esteghlal Mollasani
68%
Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani
57%

Winning margin

Shahre Raz wins by 2+
17%
Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shahre Raz 1+ goals
66%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
30%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
10%
Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
54%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
18%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
62%
Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahre Raz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahre Raz attack 0.88 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Shahre Raz defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shahre Raz scores more
43%
level
32%
Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
26%

Shahre Raz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shahre Raz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahre Raz vs Esteghlal Mollasani

Shahre Raz and Esteghlal Mollasani drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.