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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Shahre Raz — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
2/2/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 18Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani45%
×Draw31%
Shahre Raz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.15
Shahre Raz
0.74

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 55% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Shahre Raz
0.65

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Shahre Raz
1.26

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Shahre Raz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
76%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Shahre Raz
69%
Draw or Shahre Raz
55%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
20%
Shahre Raz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
68%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
32%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
11%
Shahre Raz 1+ goals
52%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
17%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
66%
Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Shahre Raz away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Shahre Raz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Shahre Raz attack 0.65 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
45%
level
31%
Shahre Raz scores more
24%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Mollasani 1–1 Shahre Raz

Esteghlal Mollasani and Shahre Raz drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on February 2, 2024.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.