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Shahre Raz vs Damash Gilanian — Azadegan League 2018

Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
11/15/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahre Raz52%
×Draw30%
Damash Gilanian18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahre Raz
1.26
Damash Gilanian
0.61

Shahre Raz creates 107% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 65 away

creates per match

Shahre Raz
0.88
Damash Gilanian
0.49

allows per match

Shahre Raz
0.74
Damash Gilanian
1.65

finishing

Shahre Raz+0.00on par
Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahre Raz ↓

Damash Gilanian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahre Raz or draw
82%
Shahre Raz or Damash Gilanian
70%
Draw or Damash Gilanian
48%

Winning margin

Shahre Raz wins by 2+
24%
Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shahre Raz 1+ goals
72%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
36%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
13%
Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
46%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
13%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
74%
Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahre Raz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahre Raz attack 0.88 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.26

Damash Gilanian attack 0.49 + Shahre Raz defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shahre Raz scores more
52%
level
30%
Damash Gilanian scores more
18%

Shahre Raz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shahre Raz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahre Raz vs Damash Gilanian

Shahre Raz beat Damash Gilanian 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.