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Damash Gilanian vs Shahre Raz — Azadegan League 2018

Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
5/2/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Dr. Azodi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Damash Gilanian42%
×Draw32%
Shahre Raz26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damash Gilanian
1.08
Shahre Raz
0.78

Damash Gilanian creates 38% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Damash Gilanian
0.91
Shahre Raz
0.65

allows per match

Damash Gilanian
0.90
Shahre Raz
1.26

finishing

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par
Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damash Gilanian ↓

Shahre Raz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Damash Gilanian or draw
74%
Damash Gilanian or Shahre Raz
68%
Draw or Shahre Raz
58%

Winning margin

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
17%
Shahre Raz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
66%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
29%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
10%
Shahre Raz 1+ goals
54%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
18%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
62%
Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damash Gilanian at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.90 · 69 matches

Shahre Raz away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damash Gilanian attack 0.91 + Shahre Raz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Shahre Raz attack 0.65 + Damash Gilanian defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Damash Gilanian scores more
42%
level
32%
Shahre Raz scores more
26%

Damash Gilanian at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Damash Gilanian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Damash Gilanian vs Shahre Raz

Damash Gilanian beat Shahre Raz 1-0 in Azadegan League on May 2, 2024.

The match was played at Dr. Azodi Stadium in Rasht.