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Shahrdari Tabriz vs Shahrdari Mahshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
FT
3 – 3
Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
4/10/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Shahrdari Complex (Tabrīz (Tabriz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz33%
×Draw30%
Shahrdari Mahshahr37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.02
Shahrdari Mahshahr
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72
Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.60

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.56
Shahrdari Mahshahr
1.33

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par
Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Shahrdari Mahshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw
63%
Shahrdari Tabriz or Shahrdari Mahshahr
70%
Draw or Shahrdari Mahshahr
67%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
13%
Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
64%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
27%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
8%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
66%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
29%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
48%
Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.60 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
33%
level
30%
Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
37%

Shahrdari Mahshahr at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shahrdari Mahshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Tabriz 3–3 Shahrdari Mahshahr

Shahrdari Tabriz and Shahrdari Mahshahr drew 3-3 in Azadegan League on April 10, 2019.

The match was played at Shahrdari Complex (Tabrīz (Tabriz)).