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Shahrdari Mahshahr vs Shahrdari Tabriz — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
FT
2 – 1
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
11/26/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 14Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr57%
×Draw25%
Shahrdari Tabriz18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Mahshahr
1.58
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.75

Shahrdari Mahshahr creates 111% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.67
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.56

allows per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.93
Shahrdari Tabriz
2.50

finishing

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par
Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Mahshahr ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shahrdari Mahshahr or draw
82%
Shahrdari Mahshahr or Shahrdari Tabriz
75%
Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz
43%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
31%
Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
79%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
47%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
21%
Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
53%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
17%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
76%
Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Mahshahr at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.67 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
57%
level
25%
Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
18%

Shahrdari Mahshahr at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shahrdari Mahshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Mahshahr 2–1 Shahrdari Tabriz

Shahrdari Mahshahr beat Shahrdari Tabriz 2-1 in Azadegan League on November 26, 2018.

The match was played at Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr).