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Shahrdari Tabriz vs Shahin Bushehr — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
FT
0 – 1
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
1/24/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Shahrdari Complex (Tabrīz (Tabriz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz27%
×Draw31%
Shahin Bushehr42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.84
Shahin Bushehr
1.13

Shahin Bushehr creates 35% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 48 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72
Shahin Bushehr
0.69

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.56
Shahin Bushehr
0.96

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw
58%
Shahrdari Tabriz or Shahin Bushehr
69%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
73%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
9%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
57%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
21%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
5%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
68%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
31%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
39%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.84

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
27%
level
31%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
42%

Shahin Bushehr at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Tabriz vs Shahin Bushehr

Shahin Bushehr beat Shahrdari Tabriz 1-0 in Azadegan League on January 24, 2019.

The match was played at Shahrdari Complex (Tabrīz (Tabriz)).