Shahin Bushehr 3–0 Shahrdari Tabriz: Result & Stats

Shahin Bushehr

FT

3 – 0

Shahrdari Tabriz

8/26/2018

Azadegan League · Round 3Shahid Beheshti Stadium (Bushehr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahin Bushehr60%

×Draw24%

Shahrdari Tabriz16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahin BushehrExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Tabriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.72

Shahin Bushehr

1.68

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.72

Shahin Bushehr creates 133% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 32 away

0.85

creates per match

0.56

0.88

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr

0.85

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.56

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr

0.88

Shahrdari Tabriz

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw

84%

Shahin Bushehr or Shahrdari Tabriz

76%

Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz

40%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+

34%

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals

81%

Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals

50%

Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals

24%

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals

51%

Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals

16%

Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)

79%

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more

60%

level

24%

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more

16%

Shahin Bushehr at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff