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Shahrdari Tabriz vs Rayka Babol — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
FT
0 – 3
Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
2/28/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz32%
×Draw29%
Rayka Babol39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.04
Rayka Babol
1.18

Rayka Babol creates 13% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72
Rayka Babol
0.80

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.56
Rayka Babol
1.37

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par
Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Rayka Babol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw
61%
Shahrdari Tabriz or Rayka Babol
71%
Draw or Rayka Babol
68%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
12%
Rayka Babol wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
65%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
28%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
9%
Rayka Babol 1+ goals
69%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
33%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
45%
Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Rayka Babol away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Rayka Babol defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.04

Rayka Babol attack 0.80 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
32%
level
29%
Rayka Babol scores more
39%

Rayka Babol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Tabriz vs Rayka Babol

Rayka Babol beat Shahrdari Tabriz 3-0 in Azadegan League on February 28, 2020.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.