Rayka Babol 1–2 Shahrdari Tabriz: Result & Stats

Rayka Babol

FT

1 – 2

Shahrdari Tabriz

10/24/2019

Azadegan League · Round 9Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rayka Babol65%

×Draw22%

Shahrdari Tabriz13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayka BabolExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Tabriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.65

Rayka Babol

1.79

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.65

Rayka Babol creates 175% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

1.08

creates per match

0.56

0.73

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Rayka Babol

1.08

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.56

allows per match

Rayka Babol

0.73

Shahrdari Tabriz

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw

87%

Rayka Babol or Shahrdari Tabriz

78%

Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz

35%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+

38%

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals

83%

Rayka Babol 2+ goals

53%

Rayka Babol 3+ goals

26%

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals

48%

Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals

14%

Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)

83%

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.79

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rayka Babol scores more

65%

level

22%

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more

13%

Rayka Babol at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff