Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shahrdari Tabriz vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
FT
1 – 0
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
12/15/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Shahrdari Complex (Tabrīz (Tabriz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz31%
×Draw29%
Qashqai Shiraz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.02
Qashqai Shiraz
1.20

Qashqai Shiraz creates 18% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 69 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72
Qashqai Shiraz
0.84

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.56
Qashqai Shiraz
1.33

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw
60%
Shahrdari Tabriz or Qashqai Shiraz
71%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
69%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
12%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
64%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
27%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
8%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
70%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
34%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
44%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.84 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
31%
level
29%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
40%

Qashqai Shiraz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Tabriz 1–0 Qashqai Shiraz

Shahrdari Tabriz beat Qashqai Shiraz 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 15, 2018.

The match was played at Shahrdari Complex (Tabrīz (Tabriz)).