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Qashqai Shiraz vs Shahrdari Tabriz — Azadegan League 2018

Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
FT
2 – 0
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
7/12/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Grand Shiraz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Qashqai Shiraz62%
×Draw23%
Shahrdari Tabriz15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qashqai Shiraz
1.72
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.69

Qashqai Shiraz creates 149% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 32 away

creates per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.93
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.56

allows per match

Qashqai Shiraz
0.81
Shahrdari Tabriz
2.50

finishing

Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par
Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qashqai Shiraz ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Qashqai Shiraz or draw
85%
Qashqai Shiraz or Shahrdari Tabriz
77%
Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz
38%

Winning margin

Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
35%
Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
82%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
51%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
25%
Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
50%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
15%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
81%
Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qashqai Shiraz at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.93 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.72

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Qashqai Shiraz scores more
62%
level
23%
Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
15%

Qashqai Shiraz at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Qashqai Shiraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Qashqai Shiraz 2–0 Shahrdari Tabriz

Qashqai Shiraz beat Shahrdari Tabriz 2-0 in Azadegan League on July 12, 2020.

The match was played at Grand Shiraz Stadium in Shiraz.