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Shahrdari Tabriz vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
FT
1 – 1
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
12/6/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Shahrdari Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz36%
×Draw28%
Oxin Alborz36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.15
Oxin Alborz
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 49 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.56
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw
64%
Shahrdari Tabriz or Oxin Alborz
72%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
64%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
15%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
68%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
32%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
11%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
68%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
32%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
50%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.15

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
36%
level
28%
Oxin Alborz scores more
36%

Shahrdari Tabriz at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Shahrdari Tabriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Tabriz vs Oxin Alborz

Shahrdari Tabriz and Oxin Alborz drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on December 6, 2019.

The match was played at Shahrdari Complex in Tabriz.