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Oxin Alborz vs Shahrdari Tabriz — Azadegan League 2018

Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
FT
5 – 0
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
8/8/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 33Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Oxin Alborz64%
×Draw22%
Shahrdari Tabriz14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxin Alborz
1.84
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72

Oxin Alborz creates 156% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 32 away

creates per match

Oxin Alborz
1.18
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.56

allows per match

Oxin Alborz
0.88
Shahrdari Tabriz
2.50

finishing

Oxin Alborz+0.00on par
Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxin Alborz ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oxin Alborz or draw
86%
Oxin Alborz or Shahrdari Tabriz
78%
Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz
36%

Winning margin

Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
38%
Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
84%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
55%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
28%
Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
51%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
16%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
82%
Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxin Alborz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxin Alborz attack 1.18 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.84

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Oxin Alborz defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Oxin Alborz scores more
64%
level
22%
Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
14%

Oxin Alborz at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Oxin Alborz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Oxin Alborz 5–0 Shahrdari Tabriz

Oxin Alborz beat Shahrdari Tabriz 5-0 in Azadegan League on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.