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Shahrdari Tabriz vs Niroye Zamini — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
FT
0 – 3
Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
2/23/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz28%
×Draw30%
Niroye Zamini42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.89
Niroye Zamini
1.16

Niroye Zamini creates 30% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72
Niroye Zamini
0.76

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.56
Niroye Zamini
1.06

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par
Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Niroye Zamini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw
58%
Shahrdari Tabriz or Niroye Zamini
70%
Draw or Niroye Zamini
72%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
10%
Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
59%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
22%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
6%
Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
69%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
32%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
40%
Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.89

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
28%
level
30%
Niroye Zamini scores more
42%

Niroye Zamini at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Niroye Zamini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Tabriz vs Niroye Zamini

Niroye Zamini beat Shahrdari Tabriz 3-0 in Azadegan League on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.