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Niroye Zamini vs Shahrdari Tabriz — Azadegan League 2018

Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
FT
2 – 0
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
10/12/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Niroye Zamini59%
×Draw25%
Shahrdari Tabriz17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niroye Zamini
1.63
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.73

Niroye Zamini creates 123% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 32 away

creates per match

Niroye Zamini
0.76
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.56

allows per match

Niroye Zamini
0.90
Shahrdari Tabriz
2.50

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par
Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw
83%
Niroye Zamini or Shahrdari Tabriz
75%
Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz
41%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
32%
Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
80%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
48%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
22%
Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
52%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
17%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
78%
Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 50 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more
59%
level
25%
Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
17%

Niroye Zamini at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Niroye Zamini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niroye Zamini vs Shahrdari Tabriz

Niroye Zamini beat Shahrdari Tabriz 2-0 in Azadegan League on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.