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Shahrdari Tabriz vs Gol Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
FT
1 – 1
Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
11/18/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Shahrdari Complex (Tabrīz (Tabriz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz21%
×Draw26%
Gol Gohar53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.86
Gol Gohar
1.53

Gol Gohar creates 78% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 14 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72
Gol Gohar
1.50

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.56
Gol Gohar
1.00

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par
Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Gol Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw
47%
Shahrdari Tabriz or Gol Gohar
74%
Draw or Gol Gohar
79%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
7%
Gol Gohar wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
58%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
21%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
6%
Gol Gohar 1+ goals
78%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
45%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
29%
Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Gol Gohar away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Gol Gohar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Gol Gohar attack 1.50 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
21%
level
26%
Gol Gohar scores more
53%

Gol Gohar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Tabriz vs Gol Gohar

Shahrdari Tabriz and Gol Gohar drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on November 18, 2018.

The match was played at Shahrdari Complex (Tabrīz (Tabriz)).