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Gol Gohar vs Shahrdari Tabriz — Azadegan League 2018

Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
FT
3 – 1
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
4/4/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 30Imam Ali Stadium (Sirjan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gol Gohar71%
×Draw19%
Shahrdari Tabriz10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gol Gohar
2.08
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.65

Gol Gohar creates 220% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Gol Gohar
1.67
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.56

allows per match

Gol Gohar
0.73
Shahrdari Tabriz
2.50

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par
Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw
90%
Gol Gohar or Shahrdari Tabriz
81%
Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz
29%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+
45%
Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals
87%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
61%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
34%
Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
48%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
14%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
87%
Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.67 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Gol Gohar defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Gol Gohar scores more
71%
level
19%
Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
10%

Gol Gohar at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Gol Gohar 3–1 Shahrdari Tabriz

Gol Gohar beat Shahrdari Tabriz 3-1 in Azadegan League on April 4, 2019.

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium (Sirjan).