Shahrdari Tabriz 0–1 Fajr Sepasi: Result & Stats

Shahrdari Tabriz

FT

0 – 1

Fajr Sepasi

3/29/2019

Azadegan League · Round 29Shahrdari Complex (Tabrīz (Tabriz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz23%

×Draw29%

Fajr Sepasi48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari TabrizExpected goals in this matchFajr Sepasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.29

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.79

Fajr Sepasi

1.29

Fajr Sepasi creates 63% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 98 away

0.72

creates per match

1.03

1.56

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.72

Fajr Sepasi

1.03

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz

1.56

Fajr Sepasi

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Fajr Sepasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw

52%

Shahrdari Tabriz or Fajr Sepasi

71%

Draw or Fajr Sepasi

77%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+

7%

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals

55%

Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals

19%

Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals

5%

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

72%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

37%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)

32%

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.79

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more

23%

level

29%

Fajr Sepasi scores more

48%

Fajr Sepasi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff