Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fajr Sepasi vs Shahrdari Tabriz — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
3 – 1
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
8/22/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Shahid Dastgheib Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Fajr Sepasi71%
×Draw20%
Shahrdari Tabriz9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.95
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.53

Fajr Sepasi creates 268% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 32 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.40
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.56

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Shahrdari Tabriz
2.50

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
91%
Fajr Sepasi or Shahrdari Tabriz
80%
Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz
29%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
45%
Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
86%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
58%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
31%
Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
41%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
10%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
89%
Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
71%
level
20%
Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
9%

Fajr Sepasi at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fajr Sepasi vs Shahrdari Tabriz

Fajr Sepasi beat Shahrdari Tabriz 3-1 in Azadegan League on August 22, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgheib Stadium in Shiraz.