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Shahrdari Tabriz vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
FT
1 – 1
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
10/5/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 7Bonyan Diesel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz25%
×Draw29%
Esteghlal Khuzestan46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.83
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.25

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 51% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 67 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.94

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.56
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.94

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw
54%
Shahrdari Tabriz or Esteghlal Khuzestan
71%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
75%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
8%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
56%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
20%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
5%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
71%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
36%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
35%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.94 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
25%
level
29%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
46%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Tabriz vs Esteghlal Khuzestan

Shahrdari Tabriz and Esteghlal Khuzestan drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Bonyan Diesel Stadium in Tabriz.