Esteghlal Khuzestan 4–1 Shahrdari Tabriz

Esteghlal Khuzestan

FT

4 – 1

Shahrdari Tabriz

2/15/2020

Azadegan League · Round 24Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan69%

×Draw21%

Shahrdari Tabriz10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal KhuzestanExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Tabriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.56

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.88

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.56

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 236% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 32 away

1.25

creates per match

0.56

0.55

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.25

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.56

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.55

Shahrdari Tabriz

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–19%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw

90%

Esteghlal Khuzestan or Shahrdari Tabriz

79%

Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz

31%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+

42%

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals

85%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals

56%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals

29%

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals

43%

Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals

11%

Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)

87%

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.55 · 67 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.25 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more

69%

level

21%

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more

10%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff