Shahrdari Tabriz 0–3 Damash Gilanian

Shahrdari Tabriz

FT

0 – 3

Damash Gilanian

8/2/2020

Azadegan League · Round 32Shahrdari Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz40%

×Draw29%

Damash Gilanian31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari TabrizExpected goals in this matchDamash Gilanian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.02

Shahrdari Tabriz

1.19

Damash Gilanian

1.02

Shahrdari Tabriz creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 65 away

0.72

creates per match

0.49

1.56

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.72

Damash Gilanian

0.49

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz

1.56

Damash Gilanian

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Damash Gilanian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw

69%

Shahrdari Tabriz or Damash Gilanian

71%

Draw or Damash Gilanian

60%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+

17%

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals

70%

Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals

33%

Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals

12%

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals

64%

Damash Gilanian 2+ goals

27%

Damash Gilanian 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)

56%

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.19

Damash Gilanian attack 0.49 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more

40%

level

29%

Damash Gilanian scores more

31%

Shahrdari Tabriz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shahrdari Tabriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff