Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Damash Gilanian vs Shahrdari Tabriz — Azadegan League 2018

Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
FT
2 – 0
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
11/29/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Damash Gilanian61%
×Draw24%
Shahrdari Tabriz16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Damash Gilanian
1.71
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.73

Damash Gilanian creates 134% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 32 away

creates per match

Damash Gilanian
0.91
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.56

allows per match

Damash Gilanian
0.90
Shahrdari Tabriz
2.50

finishing

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par
Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damash Gilanian ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Damash Gilanian or draw
84%
Damash Gilanian or Shahrdari Tabriz
76%
Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz
39%

Winning margin

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
34%
Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
82%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
51%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
24%
Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
52%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
17%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
80%
Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damash Gilanian at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.90 · 69 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damash Gilanian attack 0.91 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Damash Gilanian defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Damash Gilanian scores more
61%
level
24%
Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
16%

Damash Gilanian at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Damash Gilanian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Damash Gilanian vs Shahrdari Tabriz

Damash Gilanian beat Shahrdari Tabriz 2-0 in Azadegan League on November 29, 2019.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.