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Shahrdari Tabriz vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
FT
0 – 3
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
1/26/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 21Shahrdari Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz25%
×Draw27%
Baderan Tehran48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.91
Baderan Tehran
1.39

Baderan Tehran creates 53% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz
1.56
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw
52%
Shahrdari Tabriz or Baderan Tehran
73%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
75%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
8%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
60%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
23%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
6%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
75%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
40%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
34%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.91

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
25%
level
27%
Baderan Tehran scores more
48%

Baderan Tehran at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Tabriz vs Baderan Tehran

Baderan Tehran beat Shahrdari Tabriz 3-0 in Azadegan League on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Shahrdari Complex in Tabriz.